‘Thinking in Bets’ by Annie Duke
Book Overview
‘Thinking in Bets’ was written by Annie Duke, a poker champion who won over $4 million in professional tournaments. The book challenges how we commonly view decisions and outcomes. A great decision can lead to a poor outcome and a little luck can turn a bad decision into a great result. This mindset shift completely alters how we should evaluate our own experiences and circumstances, as well as those of others. In a career like sales, competitiveness and comparisons to our peers is impossible to avoid. Unfortunately in our job incredibly skilled people can miss quota while bad sellers can get lucky and blow their number out. Use the lessons from ‘Thinking in Bets’ to get better at what you can control: your decisions.
Key Concepts
Make the Bet
So how do we make better decisions? Gather as much information as you possibly can based on your expertise, data, and the experiences of others. More information means less uncertainty and risk. According to Duke we should think to ourselves, ‘what amount would I be willing to wager on this decision?’ If you wouldn’t be willing to bet on your choice, gather more information. Once you make the decision and know the outcome, evaluate how much of the result was based on skill and how much was based on luck.
Look to the Future
To better understand potential outcomes and their consequences, Duke provides a tool developed by author Suzy Welch know as the ’10-10-10 Strategy’. Ask yourself ‘What are the consequences of each option in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years?’ This helps us make better choices, especially when in the moment emotions may be getting in the way of rationality.
Create a Decision Group
We all have our biases, especially when self-reflecting. In order to better evaluate our decisions and outcomes we need to run them by a decision group. Duke had a group of poker plays that she’d discuss her hands with after wins or losses. They were able to be more objective and give her feedback on her decisions. Find a group of friends or coworkers that will be honest and objective to help you dissect a choice and its result.
Key Takeaways to Sell More
Bet on your deals
Every sales org has to forecast and stage deals. I know it can be viewed as an annoying task, but frame it differently to make it more fun. Forecasting is essentially betting. We are putting odds on the likelihood that the deal will come in this month, quarter, year etc. If you are only 30% confident a deal will come in, what information do you need to increase that to 40% or 50%? Just like in poker, we deal with unknowns of the other players’ cards (our customers). More information helps us make more skilled decisions.
Use Future Planning
If you are wondering how to progress a deal, imagine it’s the end of the quarter and the deal didn’t close. Why didn’t it close? Work backwards from the result to understand all of the possible ways you could lose the deal. Mitigate for each of these outcomes as much as you can. Once you work backwards to your current point in the opportunity, you’ll have a better idea of where to go next.
Deal Reflection
When you do close out a deal, take some time to review the outcome. We rarely look at what we did wrong in our wins and what we did right in our losses. Whether you won or lost the deal, ask yourself:
What did I do well?
What could I have done better?
How much of the result was luck?
How much of the result was skill?
Make sure you do this review with your team to eliminate as much personal bias as possible. This will also help you learn from the experiences of others and their decisions. Side note: Use the ‘10-10-10 Strategy’ when you lose a deal to relieve some stress and frustration.
Personal Take
I read this book in less than a week because it was such an engaging read. It’s filled with practical lessons and tactics that we can use to make better decisions every single day. The separation of decisions vs outcomes was my biggest take away. Realizing that every bad outcome isn’t my fault and every good outcome isn’t thanks to my amazing decision is an important lesson. Do yourself a favor and give this book a read. I bet you’ll love it.
Author Bio: Annie Duke
‘Thinking in Bets’ was written by Annie Duke, a poker champion, author, and consultant.